Silver Forecasters Bullish as Funds Retreat From Slump - Bloomberg

Silver Forecasters Bullish as Funds Retreat From Slump - Bloomberg

TheSilverPrice.info

At a time when hedge funds are reducing bullish silver bets by the most in two years, analysts predict a rally as manufacturing expands from China to the U.S., boosting demand for the precious metal most used in industry.

Money managers cut wagers by 68 percent in two months as futures tumbled 22 percent, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Prices will rally to average $35.40 an ounce in the fourth quarter, the third-highest on record, according to the median of 11 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Shares of Fresnillo Plc, the largest producer, will rise 25 percent in the next 12 months, based on the average of seven forecasts.

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Silver bars are stacked in New York. Photographer: Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg

Silver, the most volatile metal tracked by Bloomberg, rose more than twice as much as gold this year on mounting confidence the global economy will skirt another recession. China’s factory output gained for a fifth month in April and U.S. manufacturing grew at the fastest pace in a year. Industrial demand from solar panels to batteries to film accounts for about 53 percent of consumption, the Washington-based Silver Institute estimates.

“A greater amount of confidence in the global economy generally means higher growth and that means more silver demand,” said David Jollie, an analyst at Mitsui & Co. Precious Metals Inc. in London and the most accurate forecaster in last year’s London Bullion Market Association survey of silver prices. “If you look out beyond the end of the year, you can still see reasons to be bullish.”

Silver Speculators Absolutely Killed :: The Market Oracle :: Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting Free Website

Silver Speculators Absolutely Killed :: The Market Oracle :: Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting Free Website

www.TheSilverPrice.info

Commercials unloaded -5,894 long contracts and covered -4,504 shorts to end the week with 49.00% of all open interest which is an increase over the previous week. They are currently -118,715,000 ounces net short, a huge increase of about -7,000,000 ounces.

Large speculators were bounced out of -2,058 contract longs and were forced to cover -1,171 shorts for a net long position of 77,920,000 ounces, another dramatic reduction of almost -5,000,000 net longs from the previous week.

All the gold and silver roads now leading to China - SILVER NEWS - Mineweb.com | The world's premier mining and mining investment website Mineweb

All the gold and silver roads now leading to China - SILVER NEWS - Mineweb.com | The world's premier mining and mining investment website Mineweb


TheSilverPrice.info

This week the Shanghai Futures Exchange will start trading silver futures from Thursday.  In a commentary on this the newspaper, The Australian, comments that nowadays all the gold and silver roads are leading to China, and speculation that the next few years could see the Chinese dominating the global silver market much as they appear to be doing with the global gold market.

Indeed a big inflow of silver into China - a country which has a long association with the metal having had a silver related currency standard up until the 1930s - is felt by some to be likely to end some of the metal's price volatility and perhaps end what some see as excessive manipulation of the market through COMEX.

But silver does need to throw off its reputation for volatility - the 'devil's metal' as some traders refer to it because of this, and initially silver trading in China could add to this until perhaps it finds some kind of stability.  But commentators referred to by The Australian also say that there is indeed a particular penchant for silver investment in China because retail investors are attracted by the much lower price than that of gold and because of the relatively recent association of the country's currency with the metal.

There is little doubt that China's take-up of gold - both at the retail and institutional levels - and probably by official entities too - has been perhaps the most significant driver of the yellow metal's price over the past two or three years and it is felt that the impact on the silver market could be similar.  Given that silver is a much smaller market than gold this could prove to be quite a substantial impact and could see those holding big silver short positions on COMEX, liquidating these just in case there is a big price kicker ahead as a result.

China is already the world's third biggest silver producer after Peru and Mexico, as well as the world's largest gold miner.  It is also one of the world's largest consumers of industrial silver - probably the largest -  and investment in silver bullion and jewellery has also been running at a very high level.  Certainly China is a net importer of silver these days - both for investment and fabrication.  Investment demand has been growing id double digits percentage-wise, while in industrial usage many of today's key uses of the metal are in areas where China is beginning to dominate world supply notably in electronic products, solar panel manufacture etc.

What might detract from an immediate demand surge from China, though, is the belief that the country's industrialists may have as much as 15 months supply in stockpiles.  But China has a remarkable facility to surprise the global markets in its strength of demand for commodities and silver may prove to be no exception.

Opinion: Gold and silver - Crazy to give up now? - INDEPENDENT VIEWPOINT - Mineweb.com | The world's premier mining and mining investment website Mineweb

Opinion: Gold and silver - Crazy to give up now? - INDEPENDENT VIEWPOINT - Mineweb.com | The world's premier mining and mining investment website Mineweb


TheSilverPrice.info

Opinion: Gold and silver - Crazy to give up now?

Dudley Pierce Baker sees the current malaise in the precious metals markets as presenting a major buying opportunity for gold and silver investors - most particularly in bullion.

Author: Dudley Pierce Baker
Posted:  Friday , 04 May 2012 

GUADALAJARA (PRECIOUS METALS WARRENTS) - 

We suspect that many precious metals investors are saying, "We don't want to play anymore!" and our reply is, "You want to quit right now, right at the bottom of this cycle? You must be crazy - crazy with a capital C!" True, this is a very challenging market environment for resource shares, but we know what the ultimate outcome will be: higher share prices. The only question is "when" and our opinion is that we are very close in time (within days or a week or two at most) of being able to say that the lows are behind us. Let me explain.

Unfortunately, most resource investors, especially those new to this sector, are greatly disillusioned, have little staying power and are just scared to death. Who can blame them? They have spent all of their psychological capital and the theme of the day for them is, "How low can they go?"

Sure, we understand why investors are upset watching their portfolio go down, virtually day after day, but this current depressed environment is the seed for making investors wealthy. The buying opportunities are everywhere. As the expression goes, to make money you need to ‘buy low and sell high'.

We believe we are near enough to a bottom that if you have some remaining cash you should be putting it to work very soon. No one is going to ring a bell and call you and tell you the bottom is in place, you must make that decision for yourself. In our opinion, now is the time to suck it up, put on your big boys pants, keep your positions, and ride this out. To quit now would be the worst possible thing to do. The day will come when we look back on this time as being one of the best buying opportunities for the entire bull market and yes, we are still in a bull market.

WHAT ALWAYS FOLLOWS A CONSOLIDATION? A RALLY!

Investors actually should be grateful for this buying opportunity and take full advantage of this current depression situation. Get some good advice, subscribe to some good services and make some good decisions. A few months from now you will be a happy camper, smiling, laughing and making money once again. It is just a matter of timing.

I always like to share a few charts with readers as to where we are in the big picture. The first chart below is a long term chart of gold from the beginning of this bull market back in 2001 followed by a chart for the HUI (Gold Bugs Index) and a chart of the performance of the Canadian Venture Exchange.

Silver Technical Precious Metals (2012-05-03) - International Business Times

Silver Technical Precious Metals (2012-05-03) - International Business Times


www.TheSilverPrice.info

May 3, 2012 2:07 AM EDT

Morning Report

Silver is biased to the downside affected by the continuous failure of settling above 31.25. Currently, silver is facing the support level of 30.40, which also represents 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upside move that started at 26.14 and ended in areas around 37.50. Without breaching the mentioned level we cannot confirm the downside movement, but at the same time, without consolidation above 31.25 we cannot suggest an upside move. Therefore, we remain neutral again, awaiting further confirmations.

>The trading range for today is among the key support at 28.85 and key resistance now at 32.10.

The short-term trend is to the downside with steady weekly closing below 38.00 targeting 20.05.

***New York Candlesticks***

Previous Report

Weekly Report

Support	30.40	30.10	29.90	29.60	29.05
Resistance	30.85	31.00	31.25	31.60	31.80
Recommendation	Based on the charts and explanations above, we remain neutral awaiting more confirmations